The Timing of Repeat-Victimization: Theory and Utility

Shane Johnson
University College London

Crime conforms to a Pareto law of concentration. A small fraction of offenders commit the majority of crime, a high proportion of crime occurs in a small number of areas, and a small number of victims experience a disproportionate risk of (re) victimization. Considering Repeat Victimization against the same person or place, research has also demonstrated that events cluster in time, with sequential events occurring swiftly. Two theories (risk heterogeneity and event dependence), which have different implications for crime reduction, have been discussed to explain patterns of repeat victimization. Understanding the contribution of the two explanations is important for both Criminological understanding and crime reduction. In this presentation, both theories will be discussed in the light of the results of an empirical study and a simple micro-level simulation experiment. A hitherto overlooked dimension of the time-course of re-victimization, the consistency of the time of day that events occur, will also be discussed.

Audio (MP3 File, Podcast Ready)

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