Abstract
Epidemic extinction along the optimal path
Alexandra Landsman
ETH Zürich
Stochastic extinction of an SIS (Susceptible-Infective-Susceptible) epidemic is investigated using the optimal escape path. Action functionals are used to find a 2 degree of freedom Hamiltonian that corresponds to the 1-D optimal path trajectories of an SIS stochastic epidemic. The effects of random vaccinations on extinction are then investigated as a perturbation to the optimal path.
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