Quantifying Uncertainty using Ensemble Methods: Coherent vortex predictability

Joseph Tribbia
National Center for Atmospheric Research

The problem of uncertainty prediction will be discussed in the practical setting i.e. as currently performed at operational prediction centers.
The issues of the prediction of extremes and coherent phenomena will then be examined within the idealized problem of the predictability of coherent vortices using both point vortex models and the continuous quasi-geostrophic system. Particular attention will be paid to the problems of intensity and track uncertainty and how to design an ensemble prediction system to quantify these uncertainties.

Audio (MP3 File, Podcast Ready) Presentation (PowerPoint File)

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