Epidemic extinction along the optimal path

Alexandra Landsman
United States Naval Research Laboratory
Plasma Physics / Applied Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

Stochastic extinction of an SIS (Susceptible-Infective-Susceptible) epidemic is investigated using the optimal escape path. Action functionals are used to find a 2 degree of freedom Hamiltonian that corresponds to the 1-D optimal path trajectories of an SIS stochastic epidemic. The effects of random vaccinations on extinction are then investigated as a perturbation to the optimal path.

Back to Workshop II: Numerics and Dynamics for Optimal Transport